LABOUR DAY PREVIEW

The Holiday Card put out by Caymanas Track Limited is an excellent one for punters and there is lots of profit available for those willing to take the occasional chance.

1st Race – $180k Claiming; 1500m

Half the field have already lost in races restricted by money earned so are eliminated from contention. Two others are maidens and highly unlikely to change that situation today although, of the two, Teamwork does have an outsider’s chance.  The three to concentrate on are Prodigal Son, Fiddle Sticks and QUERIDA who is the least of the evils.  Normally, Fiddle Sticks would be the choice but she comes off a 3 months lay-off and, at 5 years old, it gets harder and harder to win off these long breaks.  The other two are thoroughly exposed and so not great choices either but at least QUERIDA is dropping down to this level whilst Prodigal Son has spent the majority of his 85 lifetime starts running in this lowly grade.

The Selection:        QUERIDA

2nd Race – 4yo Maiden Condition; 1000m (str)

How to avoid resorting to the Old Ball and Chain’s Hat Pin for this one?  Well, it’s a five straight so we can simply concentrate on the low number draws (1-4).  One is a 5 yo so eliminated and Tracking So Softly has failed to place in 24 lifetime starts.  Remember, Maiden races are for horses who have never won a race not horses who can’t win races.  So, we are left with Angel of Light whose lone racetrack non-effort was two months ago and ROYAL IMPACT who is much too well bred for this grade; showed excellent speed for 6f on debut (2l clear at the quarter pole of a mile maiden whose principals were Perfect Circle, Forever Mine and Maharani; ended up a length behind Maharani); he obviously suffered an injury next time out and was off for a year and on his second run back, produced a perfect “Z” principle.

The Selection:        ROYAL IMPACT

3rd Race – Open Allowance; 1820 Metres

Well, Poop-Side-Down flopped on Saturday; now it’s Brucy on Lucy’s turn,  Take HOMBRE to give a gentle reminder that 3yos have no business giving away double digit pounds tom, older horses over route distances so early in the year.

The Selection:        HOMBRE

4th Race – 4yonw3; 1100m

Hot favourite Ballroom Dancer will not have it her own way on this headline what with the likes of Pass Line, King of the Track and The Principal all coming to make her go.  This race should set up beautifully for CENTANNI, a lightly raced and progressive colt who won on last against the five straight track bias in favour of speed horses.  He is at a stage of rapid improvement now and is taken to fly past the limping front runners in the final furlong.

The Selection:        CENTANNI

5th Race – $270-260k Claiming; 1300m

Speedball Pure Justice is well into her second century of runs having taken a fresh guard upon scoring 100.  Hype horse Medical Account is similarly situated and BOTH are stepping up in class having been thoroughly exposed in the grades below.  Their forecast odds are ridiculously cramped.  The two to concentrate on are Fusilier another who would have been irresistible save for coming off a 2 months + lay-off at age 6; and the relatively unexposed MISS TWIST who is stepping DOWN in grade after two runs for her new trainer.  She is now thrown in for a tag $10k less than the price paid.  The hint should be taken.

The Selection:        MISS TWIST

6th Race – 4yo+nw2 (f & m only); 1200m

First Edition will be all the rage here but she is obviously a problem to train and her impressive comeback run (after 6 months off) was achieved in the mud over the 5 straight course.  She will encounter very different conditions today and it is left to be seen how much pain she suffers trying to take the corner.  At likely odds-on, I’ll pass, thank you very much.  An outsider that caught my eye is Crafted Gold who showed marked improvement in a tongue strap on last and she is not to be left out of any of your bets but a safer proposition must be MEDUSA who gets the perfect trip at last and is poised to bring a much needed winner to her stable who has been struggling by its high standards this year.

The Selection:        MEDUSA

7th Race – 3yo Maiden Condition; 1000m (str)

The smell of upset permeates this contest.  Big Money can be made here.  Talking horse Fugitive will not act on this sharp course (needs further); and Confetti, who should relish it, is 4kg up in the weights for his latest effort in which the first three finished in a heap and the winner seemed reluctant to win so it is highly suspect as to what level of form was actually achieved there.  Big Man, another likely type, hails from a stable whose recent winners are scarcer than our supplies of swine flu medicine and so it should pay to look a little deeper into this race.  Again, I must remind readers (both of them) that the 5 straight draw bias has been turned on its head and it is the low number draws that we must concentrate on.  At the number 4 hole, we find a gelding, bred on both sides to be an out and out sprinter (by Western Classic out of an Al’s River Cat mare) and who has had only 2 lifetime starts.  On debut in April, he showed good speed for 4f in a 5 str. mdn condition event during which time he was in front of the said same Sky Force (received 4kg) that a fully fit Confetti could not oblige by beating next time out.  Then, in a move exposing the larceny in the heart of all concerned, he was hidden from the wise and prudent in a 6f open allowance race won by Honeyofalady with Sir Valiant 2nd and He’s Really OK 3rd. After four furlongs of that race, he was 4th, only 5l behind Honeyofalady. Put up for a month and quietly prepared for this ideal conditions event in which he will carry only 52kg, the Warrior Chief is called for to ensure that there is no slip betwixt the cup and the lip.  Take OSCAR to make all on the far side and win on a common canter.

The Selection:        OSCAR (NAP)

8th Race – The Labour Day Trophy ($470-440k Claiming; 1200m)

An interesting sprint which can be boiled down to two namely Mark To Market and YAMASHITA’S GOLD.  Mark To Market is the classier of the two but is likely to be bogged down on the inside; will carry lots of dead weight for the pleasure of being ridden by Dick; and, as I have said before, the Husseys are finding winners harder to come by than items exempt from GCT.  On the other hand,  YAMASHITA’S GOLD has suddenly blossomed at 6 years old and, although is a quirky sort with an unusual head carriage, I am expecting the strength of Paul Francis to show him who is boss and bring home the bacon.  He is marginally preferred to Mark To Market.

9th Race – 3yonw2/Imported 3yo+ mdn; 1300m

They finished in a heap in the race won by the imported Below The Waist plus the time was slow so the form of that race is very suspect.  This is another race that stinks to high Heaven of UPSET and, were it not for the fact that she is returning from an 8 ½ months lay-off, I would have no hesitation in supporting the lone 4yo in the field, E Dubai Express, to shock the stands.  Come tomorrow, if the price is right, I might do so anyway.  Spencer Chung is becoming as famous for winning second time out as he is for losing with debutants and his charge, Patta, threw down a fast work on May 19, but still does not strike me as a likely winner – not just yet.  I’ve been watching a horse I consider to be just marginally below classic standard and expecting a win at long odds for some time now when sent over 7f+.  This is not 7f+ but, if a coup is to be successfully pulled off, the perfect race cannot be used and chances must be taken.  He has now had 3 runs after an enforced break and is gradually getting fitter and fitter.  And his workouts are quietly doing the job and showing that he is peaking now.  He has a mere 50kg and so, if larceny is to be properly and successfully attempted, it’s now or never.  Take GHOST RAPPER to score a stunning upset in the nightpan.

The Selection:        GHOST RAPPER

Tune in to KLAS FM on Monday morning at 9:00 a.m. (CDT) to hear more.

Good Luck!

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s


%d bloggers like this: