TWO THOUSAND GUINEAS PREVIEW

Those of you who took the time to read the Blog on Friday got an important pointer toward the 1,000 Guineas result as I wrote then “With a question mark against each of the favoured three, this looks a wide open event likely to produce a stunning upset….

At least we got that right and I submit we came closer to spotting the actual winner than all the so-called “experts”.  The 2,000 Guineas provides an easier contest to analyse but this doesn’t mean that the favourite can’t be beaten.  In fact, at his likely short odds, I will definitely be taking him on.

The lesson to be learnt from Saturday’s racing is that the numbers 1 and 2 holes coming out of that 9f chute are kisses of death and, generally speaking, a low number draw does the occupier of that stall no favours whatsoever.  So, I’ll be concentrating again on post positions 7 to 16 and have produced a short list of three from which I am confidently expecting the winner to come.

They are:

All Correct (#9):          Can’t be made any fitter and is a readymade and deserving favourite.  His seasonal re-appearance from the number 1 hole over 7f against Overnight Allowance horses when he was a fast closing ¾ length second to 2011 Grade 1 Governor’s Cup winner Erasmo despite traffic problems, spoke volumes for his chances here.  Since that time, he has worked brilliantly, with the Champion Trainer turning the final screw on Saturday March 31 with a 1.28.1 bullet work over 7f, beating stable companion Tantaloo by a furlong.  So, what’s the beef?  Well, to begin with, his style of running is very one-paced which strongly suggests that a mile classic won’t be his best chance of winning.  Like stable mate Exotic Gold, an Oaks type, he appears to be much more of a Derby than a Guineas horse.  His breeding, by the Forest Wildcat sire Storm Craft out of the Royal Minister mare Royal Pizzaz, confirms this as he’s related to many of the Champion Trainer’s previous classic failures the best of which, FERRARI, won the Governor’s Cup but was finishing late in his Guineas.

I’ve also to record that All Correct ‘s win in the 2yo Stakes was somewhat fortunate as Paul Francis so butchered the riding of Philistia on that day that she would undoubtedly have won by two lengths had he been able to keep her straight.  Still, All Correct was staying on resolutely at the end of that race which, as a 2yo, also suggests that two turns will be his cup of tea as a 3yo.

I keep saying that mile classics are won by quickeners and All Correct simply does not fit that bill.  So, at likely prices around odds-on, he must be opposed.

Lashing Force (# 11): This is very much one with the profile to win a mile classic.  Strangely, he ran in the 2yo Stakes without his customary figure-eight but still led for 6f of that race and was only 3l away at the furlong pole.  Obviously, had he worn equipment that prevents swallowing of the tongue and breathing restrictions generally, he would’ve been a lot closer that day.

Back with the required equipment in 2012, he’s been perfectly prepped for this by his young trainer starting with an inadequate 5fs in which he closed 6 lengths in the final furlong to end up 1 length 2nd to Awesome Camille.  Then he stalked none other than the subsequent Prince Consort winner Italiano (re-opposes here from the 4 hole) before closing as a team with that one ending up 1/2l 2nd over 6f.  The third in that race, Aventura, has confirmed the form by finishing 2nd to  Italiano in the Prince Consort – a race for which Lashing Force was declared lame by the vet at the starting stalls.  He returned to the track 4 days later and has been steadily prepared with the trainer also turning the final screw on March 31 when he went 1:14.4 for 6f (flat) which seems a more appropriate breeze for a 1 mile classic than All Correct’s 7f gallop – another reason to doubt his effectiveness at this trip.

Lashing Force is bred for this race as his dam, Seek, is a half sister to REGENT GOLD (by The Peacemaker) who was 2nd in the 2,000 Guineas and won the Gold Cup; and a half sister to legendary producer Midnight Angel (also by The Peacemaker) who is the dam of Triple Crown winner and Horse of the Year I’M SATISFIED; 2,000 Guineas winner, STEEL DAWN; Grade 1 mile winner SATISFIER; Prince Consort winner SUPREMELY SATISFIED (subsequently won 5 races in Trinidad) and Prince Consort 2nd, Leonidas.

Crucially, Lashing Force will be treated with Lasix tomorrow for the very first time.  Ignore him at your peril.  He has a chance second to none.

Potcheen (# 12): A grand stamp of a 2yo, Potcheen carried all and sundry before him including defeating All Correct by 2 ¾ lengths in the Grade 3 Juvenile when, in similar vein to Lashing Force, he was inexplicably fitted with a tongue strap for the 2yo Stakes.  As if to prove that errors attract bad luck, he also drew the dreaded number 2 hole.  The combination of the uncomfortable equipment and the bad draw saw him staggering out of the gates behind the rest and running evenly thereafter to end up a most creditable 8 lengths 6th.

The tongue strap was conspicuously absent for his two runs this year both of which were perfect preps for this event.  Not anywhere near fully wound-up and again breaking from the number 2 hole over 7 1/2f, he ran against foreigners on re-appearance and performed with credit finishing 2 1/2l 4th to Theregoesjustin.  He was a bit injudiciously ridden next time out but ran with great credit conceding 4kg to Italiano and losing by only 4l over 7f.

He has been taken to task since putting down a brilliant final gallop of 1:14.0 for 6f and is the one they all have to beat

Conclusion

The two to concentrate on are Potcheen and LASHING FORCE.  On handicap ratings, through Italiano, Potcheen has the edge and, without more, would be expected to win the ding dong battle to the wire that I anticipate between these two.

However, my confidence in Omar Walker’s ability to keep his head in the big events is very low and this combined with the use of first time Lasix on LASHING FORCE makes him the value bet in the race

SELECTION;    # 11  LASHING FORCE

QUINIELA OF THE DAY:  (11) LASHING FORCE/(12)  Potcheen

Good Luck!

THE TERRIBLE TOUT

p.s.  Correction:  I must thank one of Jamaica’s finest young journalists, George Davis, for pointing out my error in crediting Regent Gold with winning the Gold Cup.  In 1990, when they were both 3yos, the classy Regent Gold became something of a beating stick for the great race horse KHADULLAH.  He was second to KHADULLAH (Emelio Rodriquez up0 in the 2000 Guineas and second again in the Gold Cup.  Ridden by Karl Brown in that race (Gold Cup), Regent Gold was 5 lengths clear at the furlong pole when his jock decided to look all around for dangers instead of keeping his head down and riding for the wire.  Trevor Simpson conjured up a stirring finish from KHADULLAH who caught and beat Regent Gold by a short head.

My apologies to all readers for the senior moment

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2 Responses to “TWO THOUSAND GUINEAS PREVIEW”

  1. Rog Says:

    Great minds think a like,Lashing Force, Uncle Donny, All correct in that order!

    Potcheen a LNS, however more like a run on sprinter.

    Rog

  2. Rog Says:

    Baba in the Driver’s seat, Maybe 1 to 2 come Derby Day!

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