JAMAICA DERBY 2012 PREVIEW

Saturday June 9 will see the 92nd running of the Jamaica Derby and, with a maximum 16 declared, there are many plots and sub-plots.

However, the outcome is fairly predictable.  Of the 16 starters, only 4 have realistic chances and a fifth an outside shot.  The “outsider” is Aventura, so dreadfully unlucky to be disqualified after winning the Grade 1 Governor’s Cup race.  He’ll be even better suited by this step up to a mile and a half and, with Winston Griffiths replacing Richard Mairs, he’ll give it his best shot.  However, I can’t help entertaining a nagging doubt that the Governor’s Cup was definitely the one that got away as he must now meet rival All Correct on 5kg worse terms and, with that one working so brilliantly in the mornings, this seems an overwhelming task.

The short list, in alphabetical order, includes:

The aforesaid All Correct who has thrived on his racing and seems to be improving again.  In receipt of a terrible ride (miles wide at the home turn when making eye-catching headway) in the 2000 Guineas, he returned under his favourite jockey to snatch victory (in the stewards’ room) from the jaws of defeat in the Governor’s Cup.  Best off at the weights from that race and it’s unlikely that any of those who ran then will turn the tables on him today.

Exotic Gold was another who received an atrocious ride in her Guineas (same jockey as blundered with All Correct) but who made no mistake against her own sex in the Oaks under a far more enterprising ride. It’s interesting to note that her mile split in the Oaks was 1:41.2 (Governor’s Cup 1:42.3) and her final time 2:09.4 (Governor’s Cup 2:11.1) but the track rode much faster (by more than a second) on Oaks day than on Governor’s Cup Day.  Still, she’s expected to hop to the front at the 3f pole and use her 5kg sex allowance to make then work to catch her.  I don’t expect she’ll be worse than 2nd.

Typewriter is undoubtedly the “talking horse” of this Derby (there’s one every year).  Visually, he’s looks like the real McKoy and he’s sure to stay every inch of this trip and more but he’s very inexperienced having raced beyond 6f only once and then only 2 weeks ago so this race might come too soon for him.  His 1:57.2 for 9f+ (staying on well) compares somewhat unfavourably with the 1:56.1 clocked by Emperor Hall 10 days before on a similar track behind which UNCLE DONNY has his Derby prep.  Now Typewriter carries 57kg for the first time in his life (the others have all done it successfully before) and I expect him to be found out for class this early in his career.

UNCLE DONNY.  If ever a horse was bred to be a Triple Crown winner this is he.  His dam, Pretty Hilly, is a full sister to Champion 2 and 3yo Millimetre, a multiple Grade 1 winner including the St Leger who narrowly lost the Guineas and the Derby; a half sister to Governor’s Cup winner Theorem (by French Champagne) who was 2nd in the Superstakes; and a half sister to 1000 Guineas winner Fiord (by Exotic Traveller).  His breeding and style of running strongly suggests that we won’t see the best of him until he tries 10f plus so it was eye-opening how easily he proved superior to All Correct and Aventura in the 2000 Guineas.  Since that time he has done nothing wrong and I expect him to be finishing best of all to catch Exotic Gold well inside the final furlong and win going away.

DERBY SELECTION: #3    UNCLE DONNY (BANKER BET)

Exacta Horse = Exotic Gold; 3rd place to All Correct.

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One Response to “JAMAICA DERBY 2012 PREVIEW”

  1. George Davis Says:

    My feeling precisely. I do think that this All Correct is gonna run huge. But with Omar I’m hesitant. Uncle Donny’s thrashing by an A class horse, Emperor Hall, carrying 121 pounds is far superior I believe to the Typewriter’s win over Argument Done and Uppa Tune last time. Tis Uncle Donny for me. Just to say I have picked the winner of all the major 3 year old races this season. Yes, even Aventura in the Governor’s Cup. I’m keeping that on my record as a win because only the sensible, ie, stewards couldn’t see that there was insufficient grounds on which to disqualify him. Shane Ellis has picked Typewriter over All Correct because the former is easier to ride. However what the chap may live to regret is that All Correct has shown time and again, the kind of guts that every champion racehorse must have. If All Correct places ahead of Typewriter we can cuss Shane Ellis for being lazy and as my granny would say, “love ready done”. Selah.

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