JAMAICA ST. LEGER PREVIEW 2012

It’s a sad commentary on the state of thoroughbred horse racing in Jamaica that the third leg of the Triple Crown is to be run later this afternoon but the excitement level in the country is just below that of spectators at a pumpkin growers contest.  Many regular Box holders will choose to be at Sabina Park watching the Worst Indies instead while others will be focussed on Tiger Woods in the Greenbrier Classic.

Part of the problem is that the race has an uncompetitive look about it what with Typewriter being the long odds-on favourite and his jockey quoted as saying it will take an act of God to beat him.  That’s as may be but, although we’d all love to be a part owner of Typewriter, we are mere punters and, as such, we’d have to be certifiably mad to back him.  At 1/9, split stakes each way on the 2nd or 3rd will produce a bigger profit than a win only bet on Typewriter for the same outlay.  So, as punters, we have only two choices.  We can watch the race without betting or we can oppose the howling favourite with a decent each way wager.

The first thing noticeable about this race as against the Derby is the presence of lots of early speed.  This will mean that Typewriter, himself one that enjoys racing up with the pace, will have to go much harder early than he would like and it may well be that this could have a toll later on.  Uncle Donny, She’s Traditional, Star Flyer (very speedy), Raging Prospect, Timeforarms and Philistia are all leaders or prominent racers; and with All Correct likely to be lit up by a pair of first time blinkers, this could well set up for one of the two habitual closers namely Sir Mandi  and AVENTURA.

The jockey bookings for the Anthony Nunes camp suggest that Sir Mandi might just not be good enough (yet) and it’s interesting to note that, after 10f of the Derby, AVENTURA was second with all the rest behind him except for Typewriter.  This was a step forward on his Governors Cup run and, with Winston Griffiths sticking with this progressive colt, he could well deliver Gresford Smith’s first classic and first Grade 1 win.  That would be only cosmic justice after the ridiculous disqualification in the Governors Cup and a fine reward for a hard working and very competent trainer.

SELECTION:    #5     AVENTURA (each way)

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