THE TERRIBLE TOUT’S BREEDERS CUP PREVIEW 2013 (SATURDAY)

The Breeders Cup second day is where the best races are run.  There can be no sure thing with such competitive races.  All times are local (Jamaica) times.  The turf track is expected to be firm; the dirt track fast.

THE JUVENILE FILLIES (Grade 1; 8.5f; dirt; 2yof; 2.05 p.m.)

Top rated Sweet Reason could prove to be a standout and seems nailed on to reverse form with recent conqueror Artemis Agrotera who beat her by 1 1/4l in the Frizette Stakes at Belmont only because Sweet Reason inexplicably ducked left at the start and gave the field at least a 5l jump.  That was her first run on a fast surface (2 for 2 on a sloppy surface previously); she’s a half sister to several winners including Grade 3 8.5f winner Don’t Forget Gil (by Kafwain) but her dam was a 6f-8f winner and a half sister to a Grade 3 6f winner Highland Gold so she has something to prove at this trip; shipping across the country; on a very fast surface and drawn wide on a tight, sharp track.  At likely short odds she’s opposed by SECRET COMPASS whose best effort came on her dirt debut over course and distance when she wore down She’s A Tiger (re-opposes here) close home to win the Chandelier Stakes by a head.  She’s the certain stayer and likely to prove progressive now she’s been switched to dirt.  John Velasquez rides for training legend Bob Baffert.

JUVENILE FILLIES SELECTION:     #4    SECRET COMPASS

 

THE FILLY AND MARE TURF (Grade 1; 1Of; turf; 3yo f&m; 2.43 p.m.)

Tiz Flirtatious could well confirm the form of her head defeat of Marketing Mix in Hollywood’s Gamely Stakes despite a 3lbs adverse swing in the weights as she conceded first run to her rival that day but got up close home.  Both should be playing second fiddle to the improving DANK whose Beverly D win was a revelation and who seems sure to improve again for the step up in trip.  Ryan Moore rides for Sir Michael Stoute.

FILLY AND MARE TURF SELECTION: #1 DANK (BANKER BET OF THE MEETING)

THE FILLY AND MARE SPRINT (Grade 1; 3yo+f&m; 7f; dirt; 3.21 p.m.)

Not seen before August, Groupie Doll has been a shadow of the filly who won this on the bit last year and was very laboured on last when only 3rd of 6 to Judy The Beauty (re-opposes) so is a vulnerable favourite.  Those to concentrate on are Book Review, Dance To Bristol (both of whom proved up to the task when a head separated them in Saratoga’s Ballerina Stakes with the latter all out to fend off the former) and SWEET LULU, an unexposed 3yo filly who has progressed well in her 5 lifetime starts (winning the first 4) producing a really gutsy effort to win the grade 1 test Stakes at Saratoga.

FILLY AND MARE SPRINT SELECTION:   #12   SWEET LULU

 

THE TURF SPRINT (Grade 1; 3yo+; 6.5f; turf; 4.05pm)

Last year’s winner Mizdirection is on top form this year although not seen since flopping on good to soft in June will be ideally suited by all conditions here and won’t fail for fitness as she won off a similar lay-off in 2012.  However, no turf sprint winner has ever repeated so she’s vulnerable to the likes of last year’s 3rd Reneesgotzip who is better than ever this year and looks nailed on to reverse the form.  There’s lots of early speed in this race and so it could pay to back one coming from off the pace.  In this regard the two to concentrate on are Caracortago who has obvious problems (only raced once in 2012 and this is his 2nd start this year) but who is capable and HAVELOCK who will need luck in running but is perfectly drawn for his patented sweeping late run from well off the pace.

TURF SPRINT SELECTION:              #10   HAVELOCK

 

BREEDERS CUP JUVENILE (Grade 1; 2yoc&g; 8.5f; dirt; 4.43 pm)

Havana is by far the best horse in the race but his blinding early speed together with the way he slowed to a walk when hanging on desperately by a neck from Honor Code (flashed tail and looked ungainly) in the Champagne Stakes (8f; Belmont) means backers hearts will be in their mouths for the final furlong of this race especially as he has been handed a car park draw.  Mexikoma is a strong opponent off an impressive maiden win but BOND HOLDER who broke his maiden against winners when switched to dirt for the FrontRunner Stakes over course and distance on September 28 has plenty more in the tank and is the value bet.

JUVENILE SELECTION:   #5     BOND HOLDER

 

BREEDERS CUP TURF (Grade 1; 12f; turf; 3yo+; 5.22 pm)

The Fugue will be all the rage as Europe has made this race its own but fillies don’t often beat the boys at this level regardless of the time of year and she has been somewhat of a bridesmaid in her career.  The two to concentrate on against her Big Blue Kitten and POINT OF ENTRY have in common that they’ve been unlucky losers to Little Mike.  Although the former suffered far worse interference than the latter, the latter’s bad luck was in this race last year whilst Big Blue Kitten’s misfortune came in the Joe Hirsch Classic at Belmont.  POINT OF ENTRY is best suited to the peculiar requirements of the tight circuit that is Santa Anita and is given the marginal nod.

BREEDERS CUP TURF SELECTION:# 8    POINT OF ENTRY

 

BREEDERS CUP SPRINT (Grade 1; 6f; dirt; 3yo+; 6.01 pm)

Trinniberg and The Lumber Guy, first and second last year, are back but their form this year has been dismal so both must be opposed.  Justin Phillip is in the form of his life but seems to find one better and in FAST BULLET he is very likely to find one to whom he has already played second fiddle returning to form after flopping first time out for D Wayne Lukas in sloppy conditions.  Back to his preferred fast surface, he is taken to record yet another Breeders Cup win for the legendary 78 year old trainer.

BREEDERS CUP SPRINT SELECTION:     #8     FAST BULLET

BREEDERS CUP MILE (Grade 1; 8f; turf; 3yo+; 6.40 pm)

Olympic Glory is a top notch contender but will need luck and rain to succeed while the American champion WISE DAN has not put a foot wrong all year until failing to act on the polytrack last time out when the races were taken off turf.  He’s the highest rated horse in the world now and should take all the beating. No Jet Lag with an appealing turn of foot looks the best outsider.

BREEDERS CUP MILE SELECTION:#8     WISE DAN

 

BREEDERS CUP CLASSIC (Grade 1; 10f; dirt; 3yo+; 7.35 pm)

Fort Larned was gifted a soft lead last year and made the field pay but this is most unlikely to happen again.  Bob Baffert was greatly displeased with the ride on GAME ON DUDE who has returned this year with a vengeance AND a rabbit named Paynter who could take turns with East Coast shipper Moreno ensuring that Fort Larned doesn’t dominate again.  The selection should take it up fully 3 furlongs out and give Mucho Macho man too much work to do up the short straight to catch him.  GAME ON DUDE (NAP OF THE MEETING) is a confident pick to win from Mucho Macho Man who should again be the bridesmaid.

CLASSIC SELECTION: #9GAME ON DUDE (NAP OF THE MEETING)

EXACTA/QUINIELA OF THE MEET: GAME ON DUDE/Mucho Macho Man

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