BREEDERS CUP PREVIEW 2015

The Breeders Cup moves to Keeneland this year where the rain has been pelting down for days. It’s expected to be dry today and tomorrow but the track will definitely be on the wet side even for Saturday’s exciting card.

Keeneland is a very sharp left handed track that favours speed and a low number draw. The turf track is very tight (7.5f around) so will not help the long striding galloper but will favour handy, adaptable types.

BREEDERS CUP JUVENILE FILLIES (G1; Dirt; 8.5f; 12.05 ET; 11.05amJa)

The usual gaggle of lightly-raced unexposed fillies including highly fancied #9 Rachel’s Valentina, unbeaten daughter of 2009 Preakness winner/Horse of The Year Rachel Alexandra. Rachel’s Valentina is two for two in her brief career including the Grade 1 Spinaway where she couldn’t have been more impressive after suffering traffic trouble and coming four wide into the straight to win by 1l from #2 Tap to It (re-opposes). Although not as well drawn this time, Rachel’s Valentina looks to have more to come and should confirm places but she has to answer a query on a wet track so it could pay to take a chance on #7 NICKNAME who improved for a sloppy surface to win the Grade 1 Frizzette at Belmont. #8 Dothraki Queen, 2nd in the Grade 1 Alcibiade over course and distance in sloppy conditions, could be next best while #10 Songbird has the best form in the race and her running style suits the track but she’s drawn in the car park and may do too much too early.

JUVENILE FILLIES SELECTION:             #7 NICKNAME

 

BREEDERS CUP TURF SPRINT (Grade 1; 5.5f; Turf; 12.45ET; 11.45amJa)

#8 Something Extra defeated #3 Undrafted on easy ground over course and distance in April and must be value to do so again here but the likely torrid early pace could militate against both and set the race up perfectly for a closer like #12 READT FOR RYE who is 2 for 2 on turf and 2 for 2 on wet tracks. #19 The Great War, the mount of Ryan Moore, is another for the short list and has been patiently prepared to peak on Saturday.

TURF SPRINT SELECTION:              #12 READY FOR RYE

FILLY AND MARE SPRINT (Grade 1; 7f; Dirt; 1.25ET; 12.25pmJa)

Last year’s winner #11 Judy the Beauty returns for a crack at a repeat and has won 4 of her 5 races at Keeneland but is 6yo now and poorly drawn. Not a lot among #2 Dame Dorothy (owned by master chef Bobby Flay; lost only once in 5 tries at 7f; won by 12l only run on a wet track); #4 La Verdad (in excellent form; a perfect 5 for 5 this year including emphatic win in Grade 2 Gallant Bloom over 6.5f at Belmont in September with Dame Dorothy 5l 3rd) and #5 Artemis Agrotera (not seen out since flopping in this race at Santa Anita in 2015; working brilliantly).

Of the three, #2 Dame Dorothy is preferred at the distance but they could all fall prey to a fresh, unexposed type like #3 TARIS, a course and distance winner who won on debut by 12l on a wet track and has won 5 of her 8 starts.

FILLY AND MARE SPRINT SELECTION:   #3 TARIS

 

FILLY AND MARE TURF (Grade 1; 9.5f; Turf; 2.10ET; 1.10pmJa)

It’s hard to look beyond #3 LEGATISSIMO who has done nothing but improve all year after winning the 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket and her impressive win last time out in the Group 1 Matron at Leopardstown on yielding ground makes her a perfect fit for this. Last year’s French Guineas winner #9 Miss France, who should improve for the step up in trip, is the selection’s biggest danger.

FILLY AND MARE TURF SELECTION: #3 LEGATISSIMO

 

BREEDERS CUP SPRINT (Grade 1; 6f; Dirt; 2.50ET; 1.50pm Ja)

This appears tailor made for front runner #5 RUN HAPPY who acts well in the slop and who is unexposed and progressive. #4 Limousine Liberal, 4l 2nd to the selection over 7f in the King’s Bishop and working like a well oiled machine, is a threat to turn the tables while, if they go too fast too early, #8 Wild Dude can capitalize.

BREEDERS CUP SPRINT SELECTION: #5 RUN HAPPY

THE BREEDERS CUP MILE (Grade 1; 8f; Turf; 3.30ET; 2.30pmJa)

It’s likely the Europeans will dominate again and, in #3 MAKE BELIEVE, they have a really classy filly who won the French 1,000 Guineas then returned from flopping at Royal Ascot on fast ground to make a triumphant return in the Group 1 Prix de la Foret a month ago. She’ll be peaking for this. #9 Esoterique is next best followed by #5 Impassable.

BREEDERS CUP MILE SELECTION: #3 MAKE BELIEVE

 

BREEDERS CUP JUVENILE (Grade 1; 8.5f; Dirt; 4.10ET; 3.10pmJa)

It’s left to be seen whether #13 Nyquist gets this trip in a truly run race and it’s interesting that each time the journey lengthens old rival #12 Swipe finishes closer losing by less than 1l despite being intimidated by the winner on the rails last time. The one to be on is #3 GREENPOINTCRUSADER who won the Grade 1 Champagne (Belmont) impressively on last on a sloppy track and whose form looks the strongest on show.

BREEDERS CUP JUVENILE SELECTION: #3 GREENPOINTCRUSADER

 

BREEDERS CUP TURF (Grade 1; 12f; Turf; 4.50ET; 3.50pmJa)

#1 Golden Horn will be all the rage after a brilliant season that includes wins in the Epsom Derby and The Prix del Arc de Triomphe but he has repeatedly run below form on easy going and has had a hard season. It could pay to oppose him with lightly raced filly #9 FOUND (NAP) who has been begging for this trip and softish ground all season and whose last run was full of promise that a race like this was well within her scope.

BREEDERS CUP TURF SELECTION: #9 FOUND (NAP OF THE DAY)

BREEDERS CUP CLASSIC (Grade 1; 10f; Dirt; 5.35ET; 4.35pmJa)

Triple Crown Winner #4 AMERICAN PHAROAH (BANKER BET) is the best three year old to race in the USA for decades and has been prepared with a vengeance for this. Anybody who beats him wins.

Good Luck!

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